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Market Data · October 28, 2026

China's Timber Imports Have Fallen Four Years Running. Where Does South American Pine Fit?

China is the world's second-largest wood importer after the United States, according to USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and it has also been a shrinking market for four years. For a South American exporter deciding whether China deserves a place in the sales plan, three questions matter: how much demand is left, who already holds it, and what customs will ask for on arrival.

Why are China's timber imports falling?

USDA's February 2026 Solid Wood Annual gives two reasons for the slide. Housing is the first: new housing starts and commercial housing sales have both dropped sharply, and construction is where much of China's imported softwood ends up. Domestic supply is the second. China's timber production reached an estimated 144 million m³ in 2025, about 5% above 2024, as managed forests in the south, mostly eucalyptus and Chinese fir, reach harvest age. USDA expects imports to keep falling in 2026.

Customs data for the first half of 2026 point the same way. According to Global Wood Markets Info (18 August 2026), China imported 10.66 million m³ of lumber in January–June, down 12% on a year earlier. Softwood fell 21%, faster than the total. Import value slipped only 1% to US$3.076 billion, because the average CIF price rose 13% to US$289 per m³. The loss of demand is concentrated in softwood, which is the category South American pine competes in.

Who supplies China's softwood lumber, and at what price?

China's softwood supply is narrow. New Zealand provides about 75% of its 24 million m³ of softwood log imports, and Russia provides 70% of softwood lumber, followed by Canada (8%), Belarus (7%) and Finland (3%). Pine, together with spruce and fir, made up 83% of softwood lumber imports in 2025. Russia banned softwood log exports in 2022, one of several export bans USDA cites for the fall in China's log imports, and USDA notes that weak demand makes buyers more price-sensitive.

China Customs data cited by USDA shows how tight the margin is. In 2024, it recorded Russian softwood lumber at an average of US$207 per m³ and Belarusian lumber at US$191. Belarus grew 37% that year, to 1.2 million m³, and became China's third-largest softwood lumber supplier, helped by rail links that cut transport cost and time. Any South American offer is measured against those numbers.

Does China's pinewood quarantine rule apply to Argentina and Uruguay?

China's main pine-specific quarantine measure is GACC Announcement No. 110, in force since 1 February 2022. It covers pine wood (Pinus spp., logs and lumber) from countries where the pinewood nematode is present, and it names seven of them. The requirements are demanding. Each batch of logs must be laboratory-tested by the exporting country's plant authority and fumigated with methyl bromide or sulfuryl fluoride. Lumber must be heat-treated, or tested and fumigated. The phytosanitary certificate has to record the treatment details, and the shipment can enter only through designated ports in five provinces. There is no treatment option at the port: a non-compliant consignment is returned or destroyed, and imports from the related enterprises and production areas can be suspended.

Argentine and Uruguayan pine is not covered by that announcement, so it does not carry that load. Two caveats apply. First, being off the list does not mean being exempt from China's general quarantine inspection, and we did not find a current GACC document that sets out product-specific requirements for sawn pine from either country, so an importer should confirm them with China Customs before shipping. Second, the rules move quickly. GACC says it adjusts requirements based on interceptions at port, and in March 2025 it suspended US log imports after detecting bark beetles and longhorn beetles, then lifted the ban effective 11 November 2025 following the Trump–Xi talks in Busan.

How much South American pine does China buy?

The volumes are small. Argentina's sawn wood exports to China were US$11.89 million in 2025, according to UN Comtrade data published by Trading Economics. Uruguay's picture is more active in logs than in pine. Prensa Latina reported on 11 July 2026 that eucalyptus log exports to China and Vietnam grew about 30% in volume in the first half of the year, with better prices, while India became the main destination for Uruguayan pine, up about 20% in volume at prices still below sector expectations.

China's demand also reaches the region indirectly. USDA reports that a significant share of US log trade shifted to Vietnam after the 2025 suspension, where Chinese firms have invested heavily in sawmill capacity. Vietnam is already the main destination for South American pine, so part of China's appetite may arrive through Vietnamese mills rather than Chinese ports. That is our inference from USDA's observation, not a published figure.

What this means for buyers and sellers

With Russian pine landing at around US$207 per m³ and Chinese softwood demand falling, South American pine is unlikely to win China on price. In our reading, the openings lie in what rail-delivered commodity lumber does not offer: kiln-dried, graded and appearance material, and supply that lets a buyer reduce dependence on one origin. For a seller, China is a selective channel to run alongside Vietnam and India, not a volume anchor. For a Chinese importer, the lighter quarantine file on Argentine and Uruguayan pine is a real advantage over North American pine, but it should be checked against GACC at the time of each order.

Trading Globe quotes sawn timber to China from Argentine and Uruguayan origin order by order, and prepares the phytosanitary and shipping documents at origin.

Sources

By Alejandro Fontanarrosa · Representative, Trading Globe

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